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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your team in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or merely the greatest upset.

Yet this year's field is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime underperformers rising together. In an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and fun year, he's facing several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his special ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still